The dreaded day is upon us.
The Bears are eliminated from the playoffs. So we borrow a page from the Chicago Cubs
book and say “next year”.
But who on this 2015 Bears squad has earned the right for a
new contract with the Bears and what are the chances we see them back next
year. We go through and give them a rank
of 5 of if they earned a new deal and if the Bears will bring them back. 1 means the player is already out the door
and 5 means they are a stone-cold lock to bring back.
(notes: if the player is under contract for next year, I did
not include them. And I only included 8 players on each side of the ball)
Let’s start on the defensive side:
- Sam Acho, OLB (3/5): At times, Sam Acho looked like the 2nd
best player on the defense for the Bears.
Other times, he was invisible. He
made league veteran minimum in 2015. So he is a low risk move for the
Bears. I think a difference making edge
rusher is the Bears #1 priority, so if they bring back Acho, it is for a 1 year
deal and he loses a lot of reps.
- Chris Prosinkis, S (2/5): He is a tackle-missing
machine. Whether its on special teams or
defense, Prosinski is known for his missed tackles. Sure, he caused the fumble against the
Packers, but does that make up for all the big gains he’s allowed with missed
tackles? There is a slim chance he comes
back as a special teamer and because he knows Fangio’s defense in a pinch. But if he starts again next year, this
defense will continue to struggle.
- Alan Ball, CB (1/5): Ball was thrust into a starting role in the
beginning of the year, replacing Tim Jennings.
But he quickly fell out of favor with bad play and missed
assignments. Things have not gotten
better for Ball. The Bears seem more
than ok with Fuller, Porter, and Callahan (well enough to dump Ball). I don’t see much of a chance for him to come
back.
- Ryan Mundy, S (1/5): Mundy was slated to be the starting safety
along side his former teammate Antrel Rolle.
But father time and the injury bug bit both players. I honestly thought Mundy would have been
decent for the Bears this year. But
coming off a serious injury, being an Emery free agent, and the rise of Adrian
Amos, I don’t see much chance of Mundy’s return next year.
- Sherrick McManis, CB (1/5): McManis started the season as the Bears
nickel corner. In previous years, he has
played decently in spot roles. But this
season, he has been absolutely horrible.
I am beyond shocked he wasn’t cut mid-season. As with Ball, with the rise of Porter,
Fuller, and Callahan as their top 3 corners, I think they part ways with
McManis and try to develop young corners.
- Jarvis Jenkins, 34DE (4/5): When the Bears brought Jenkins in, I thought
it was only for depth and because he had experience playing this position. But he quickly won the starting role and has
been a pleasant surprise ever since. In
2015, he only make $750,000. I look for
the bears to sign him for another 1 year deal for about double the money. Even if they draft another DE, having Jenkins
play backup reps still makes the Bears defense better.
- Shea McClellin, ILB (3/5): I was torn on my grade here. On the one hand, you’ve paid this guy
millions of dollars to be a wasted first round pick. Plus he is another Phil Emery guy, and we all
know what Ryan Pace thinks of Phil Emery signees and draft picks. With that in mind, I think he’s 100%
gone. On the flip side, Vic Fangio likes
him. He has done a good job of calling
plays. He’s gotten better as an ILB
during the year. But still, you need an
impact player at your ILB spot to be a great defense and I don’t think Shea can
be that. With that in mind, if they can
sign him for a team-friendly deal, I think he’s liked enough by the coaching
staff to be brought back for a backup role (and spot starter during injury),
but he can’t be brought back to be a starter on this team.
- Tracy Porter, CB (5/5): Porter was a journeyman corner in this league
and he really found his calling under this Vic Fangio defense. At best this season, he was a legit shutdown
corner. At worst, he was still an
average to above average corner. Either
way, he was the best corner on this team.
Barring some team throwing him a ridiculous offer, I don’t see any way
he is not brought back. He made less
than $1M last year. I think the Bears
re-sign him for 3 years for roughly $2.5-3M per season.
Now onto our offense:
- Marc Mariani, WR/PR (2/5): If you listen to the show, you know I rail on
Mariani a lot as a KR/PR. And rightfully
so. He lacks the speed to scare the
other team and he’s had enough trouble catching the ball that I would replace
him in a heartbeat as the returner (already lost his job to a superior KR in
Thompson). But with I injuries piling up
at the receiver position for the Bears, Mariani stepped up as a slot
receiver. At times he really impressed
me. Sure, he was no Wes Welker, but he
got open and he caught the ball and he took the hit. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be shocked if
the Bears brought him back on a veteran minimum deal and let him compete in
training camp for a spot. But if the
Bears bring back Alshon and Wilson, is there room for Mariani?
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB (2/5): Rodgers was going to be an important piece
for the Bears offense this year. He was
going to be a change of pace from Forte and a bridge to Jeremy Langford. But injury altered that a lot. With the emergence of Jeremy Langford as a
legit starting running back, Rodgers need is brought into question. If you bring Forte back, it’s a pretty
crowded backfield with Forte, Langford, Carey, and Perry. If you decide not to bring back Matt Forte,
it’s still going to be a crowded backfield.
I think if Forte returns, you will not see Rodgers offered a deal. If Forte leaves, I think there is a 50%
chance you see Rodgers come back and offered a chance to win a job during
training camp.
- Josh Bellamy, WR (2/5): Josh Bellamy is a guy that tests whether
you’re thinking with your head or your heart.
He played well on special teams and whenever he was asked to fill a WR
role on this team, he played hard. We’re
Chicago fans. We love try-hard guys more
than anyone. Remember Chris Zorich? Tommy Waddle?
If the Bears keep Alshon and bring back Wilson (and everyone is
healthy), this is a pretty crowded WR group.
Kevin White, Alshon, Royal, Wilson and you have young Cam Meredith under
contract. Maybe they bring him back and
let him compete for that 6th WR spot. But I doubt they bring back both Bellamy and
Mariani.
- Patrick Omameh, G (4/5): Patrick Omameh has filled in really well and
certainly won the right guard spot vacated when Kyle Long moved to right
tackle. Is he a stud? Obviously not. Did he do well enough? Absolutely.
If the Bears move into 2016 with the same starting 5 offensive linemen,
they will be OK. Is there room for
improvement? Absolutely. But o-line is not the most pressing need for
this team. You’ve already invested time
and a 3rd round draft pick on Grasu, Long is a pro bowler, and
Slauson is your best o-lineman. So if
the Bears do address the o-line in the draft or free agency, it will be either
right guard (Omameh) or left tackle (Leno).
Pro Football Focus, in multiple games, has graded Omameh as the best
o-lineman for that particular game. So
I’m hard pressed to think the Bears will be eager to move away from
Omameh. So there is a really good chance
they try to lock him up or at least tender him as a restricted free agent.
- Marquess Wilson, WR (3/5): Just as with Josh Bellamy, it’s hard for me
to objectively look at Marquess Wilson.
I think he has a world of talent and it’s been bad luck that has
prevented him from showcasing it. Does
that mean I think he’s a #1 in this league?
Oh hell no. Not even a #2. But if you bring him back on a low deal and
he’s your #4 behind White, Alshon, and Royal (all healthy), then he could
really be an impact player. The issue
has been he has been injured a lot. And
this year, he was forced to be a #2 because of so many WR injuries for the
Bears. Assuming they bring everyone back
and health issues are resolved, he could be an x-factor for the Bears.
- Zach Miller, TE (5/5): Barring some team throwing him stupid money,
there is no way he doesn’t return. Even
with a healthy Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller is the Bears most dynamic
pass-catching TE. Sure, the Black
Unicorn is a bigger target and stronger and harder to bring down and blocks
better. But Miller is too big for a
corner and way too fast for most linebackers.
He’s a matchup problem. He’s a
really poor man’s Gronk. While Marty
Bennett is a headache for Pace and Fox and Gase, Miller is a great
teammate. Considering I don’t think
Bennett returns for the Bears, Miller will be brought back.
- Alshon Jeffery, WR (5/5): You watch the games. You see the difference in what the offense
looks like with Alshon and without Alshon.
Even when he’s at 70%, he changes the way the Bears play. I think Kevin White will be an absolute
special WR, but you are silly if you don’t bring back Alshon to be
complimentary to White. If the Bears
can’t agree on a long term deal, they will franchise tag him. One way or another, Alshon will be a Bear
next year.
- Matt Forte, RB (3/5): This was by far the toughest evaluation. If you look at sheer production and what he
means to this team, as a player, as a leader, as a good man…you 100% bring him
back. BUT. That is a big but, he was easily one of the
highest paid running backs in the league (#6 to be exact with $7.6M per
year). If you look at running back
numbers, there are a handful of guys that get paid and a lot of guys not. Out of the 146 running backs in the NFL, only
9 make more than $4M per year. If you
add the salary of the Bears other 2 running backs (Carey and Langford), Forte
makes over 5.5 times their combined salary this year. So do you want to bring him back? Of course you do. But it’s ultimately going to come down to a
number that makes sense. You can’t pay
Forte nearly $8M next year. I think
$4.1M is a number that keeps him in the top 10 salaries at RB and is still
affordable with what you’re trying to do with the salary cap. If you are the Bears, you have to tread lightly here. As much as being a Bear means to Forte, being
paid and respected are more important.
The franchise and transition tags aren’t really viable here (A) because
you likely use the franchise tag on Alshon, and B) the franchise and transition
tags are around $11M and $9M for 2016).
2016 is going to be an interesting year for the Chicago
Bears with a lot of new faces and a lot of decisions to be made. We shall see where Ryan Pace takes us. But based on the improvement of attitude and
play from 2014, I think the arrow is pointing way up.
